SF Neighborhoods


Two weeks ago I attended the South Beach Mission Bay Neighborhood Association. Alan Mark of The Mark Company was the speaker for the evening, and if you do not know who he is, just think of sales and marketing for The Infinity, The Brannan, The St. Regis, 200 Brannan, The Arterra, The Montgomery, 733 Front, and the soon to be released One Hawthorne.

Alan Mark and his company represented the sales of all of the above buildings in the South Beach and SOMA areas of San Francisco and many more since his company was founded 11 years ago. So I was dying to hear his perspective on the sales activity in the South Beach area that night.

What did he say? He said that within 2 years he sees us with a shortage of inventory in South Beach. Why? New construction loans are extremely tough to get these days. But let’s say an entity was fortunate enough to get a loan. Getting the entitlements to the land is another time-consuming hurdle that could take years. Then there’s the time it takes to build.

What is available today in new construction? As of February 2010:

  • Only 14 units are left at The Infinity
  • One Hawthorne is going to open soon with just 119 units
  • The Montgomery is sold out, and
  • The Arterra is also close to being sold out

If an entity gets that new construction loan and the entitlements to build, it could be up to 10 years before the building would be complete and ready for sale.

Realtors get accused of being overly optimistic. So I’m not going to make any recommendations; I’m just reporting this is what Alan Mark sees on the horizon. He’s pretty credible in my book. Like I said, think The Infinity, St. Regis, The Brannan, 200 Brannan, One Hawthorne….

We are done with 2009. What’s behind us? In the fourth quarter ’09 the real estate market began to recover from the trauma of the financial market fallout that began in 2008. The quantity of homes and condos sold increased 5% over last year which ends a four year decline. Prices still were down however there are signs that there is competition in the marketplace again as properties sold closer to their asking price in Q4.  But talk to people that have been writing offers in 2009 and you will find many stories of buyers having to write *over* the list price to get the home.

I have detailed neighborhood reports for all districts in San Francisco. Shoot me an email and I will send it to you!

jdavis@mcguire.com

Jenn

South Beach Hot Spots

I have a new challenge for 2010: keeping up with the new hot spots that keep opening up in San Francisco’s South Beach.

In 2009, and in just the past few weeks, I have seen these South Beach establishments open for business:

Coming down the pike is the long-awaited Prospect restaurant (a spinoff from Nancy Oakes’ Boulevard Restaurant) that will be located on the ground floor of the Infinity building at 300 Spear @ Folsom.

These new establishments continue to enhance the walkability of the South Beach neighborhood. That is great for the real estate values in the area. And there are some great deals in South Beach these days.

Stay tuned. There are more South Beach hot spots to come in 2010!

 A new San Francisco development, One Hawthorne,  will be opening in Downtown San Francisco in early 2010.  The location is at the corner of Hawthorne and Howard.  Compared to other new developments in San Francisco,  The Infinity at 656 units, One Rincon at 709 units and The Millenium at 419 units, One Hawthorne is a boutique building offering just 165 units. One Hawthorne will have condos ranging from junior 1 bedrooms to 3 bedroom penthouses.

Pricing can only be estimated right now as ranging from the $400,000s to $2,000,000. And pricing will be key. The South Beach and SOMA developments that listened and responded to the market in 2009 were rewarded with plenty of buyers. For example: The Infinity has less than 50 units available after selling an average of 40 homes a month (making it one of the top selling development in the country) One Rincon states to be 80 percent sold out . Other nearby developments such as The Montgomery have only a few unit left for sale.

One Hawthorne is positioned well as an alternative to the larger towers in South Beach and SOMA: Located on a quiet(er) historic block in Downtown San Francisco.  A rooftop garden for residents.  A new restaurant Benu (from the former chef de cuisine of French Laundry) is opening right on Hawthorne Lane. 

As the debate continues on whether or not we have hit the bottom of the market and starting a recovery, the sales at One Hawthorne will be an exciting indicator. It is looking to be a gorgeous development with the best of the city’s amenities. One Hawthorne will a welcome beginning to 2010.

Have you noticed the shift in the topic on the real estate market?

Just 6-8 months ago the conversation about the market began with ‘How much worse can it get?’  Today, the conversation begins with ‘There are signs of a recovery’.

Earlier this week Bernanke said the deep recession that’s gripped the US economy is “very likely over at this point.” A recent survey conducted by the City Business Journals Network, an alliance with the Business Times, stated that over half of small to mid-sized business owners feel that their prospects will be a lot better in the next 12 months. That is a sizeable increase when just five months ago only a third of business owners felt optimistic about their prospects.

I took a look at recent sales in the MLS (Multiple Listing Service). In San Francisco, from January 1, 2009 through June 30, 2009, 1417 homes were sold or an average of 236 homes per month. From July 1 until now (less than 3 months), 884 homes have been sold or an average of 294 homes per month. That is an increase of 58 homes sold each month. Optimism fuels a recovery just as pessimism fuels a downturn.

I expect we will have a very active fall in San Francisco. Buyers are feeling that optimism and writing more offers. Serious sellers are more acclimated to the current environment and are willing to price their homes to meet the market. Of course, there are also sellers that quickly turn in to buyers as some are willing to take a bit of a loss on their current home and trade up into a larger home to recoup their investment!

Do you fall in one of these categories? Call me today to discuss your needs or if you want more detail about your neighborhood. Enjoy the San Francisco Indian Summer!

jdavis@mcguire.com

http://www.jenndavis.com

San Francisco Painted Ladies

San Francisco Painted Ladies

I have been working with a buyer for the past 6 months who wants to upgrade from a condo to a single family home. We all are aware the market has softened and the time is right to make a move.

My client finally found the home of her dreams last month but felt the market had not hit bottom and wanted to wait things out. See if the Sellers would drop their price. Sure enough, another buyer thought this home was their dream home too and made an offer that was accepted immediately. Surprised and disappointed, my client continued her search.

The next dream home surfaced just a week later. The listing agent set an ‘offer date’! (what year is this – 2005?) and would not entertain offers until there had been 2 Sunday open houses. The offer date arrived. Three offers (including ours) were presented. The offer that was accepted was head and shoulders above our offer. The Sellers didn’t even bother to issue a counter. The belief was it is best to accept the top offer than to take their chances in issuing a counter (what if the buyer went away? they felt).

I’ve also seen two fixer single family homes go into contract in under 10 days.

I know we are in a softer market. But it is not a market that can be generalized. The nicer properties, priced well, will go alarmingly fast. My perspective is why wait? If you see a property that fits your needs, write your best offer now. Many times, the first offer in is the best offer. Sellers know that. But even if a Seller does not know that, an agent representing you knows that. Just my 2 cents.

Jenn Davis jdavis@mcguire.com

ggb1

Who would have thought that just last year San Francisco was considered #24 as the best place to invest in real estate? Now in 2009, it has moved up to position #6. This is the year for playing it safe, not investing in creative or far flung opportunities.

The City by the Bay has always been a destination city with international appeal. Only 7×7 miles…the traditional rules of supply and demand apply in this gorgeous city of ours.

For investment opportunities, click here for my info or send me an email at jdavis@mcguire.com.

Jenn

Next Page »